e-PSM 216: Quantitative Risk Analysis


This training course provides in depth knowledge on how to perform and understand a quantitative risk assessment with the help of Worked Examples. In this course the participant will learn about the key components of a QRA, the expected outcomes, and how to effectively perform and audit QRA studies.  The course will also cover Industry best practices and lessons learned.  Upon successful conclusion of the training course, participants should be prepared with the tools and skills to efficiently and effectively perform and evaluate a QRA.


  • To introduce attendees to fundamentals of QRA technique to be used when conducting and performing QRAs.
  • To introduce attendees to QRA documentation techniques;
  • To provide an appreciation for lessons learned based on real-life accident case histories;
  • To point out internationally recognized and generally available, recognized and accepted good engineering practices (RAGAGEP) and best practices related to safety and environmental risk management principles and practices (i.e., CCPS Guidelines for Quantitative Safety Risk Criteria, API RP 752, and API RP 753);
  • To provide an understanding of the essential elements for equipment spacing, siting and layout in hydrocarbon and chemical process facilities
  • To provide an understanding of the essential elements for equipment spacing, siting and layout in hydrocarbon and chemical process facilities;
  • To provide an understanding of proven consequence analysis and frequency estimation techniques.

  • PSM Managers and Coordinators
  • Process, Safety and Mechanical Engineers
  • Professionals with a background in science and engineering

  • None



Day 1

  • Introduction to QRA
  • Origins
  • SEVESO Directive
  • Anatomy of a QRA
    • Hazard selection
    • Consequence assessment
    • Frequency estimation; risk output
  • Risk Criteria
    • Origins
    • ALARP
    • Individual Risk (IR) & Societal Risk (SR)
  • Hazard Identification
    • Hazard types
    • Historical major accidents
    • Deterministic approach
    • Probabilistic approach
  • Consequence Assessment
  • Fires
    • Calculate fire radiation distances
    • Pool Fires and VCE
    • BLEVEs and Fireballs
Day 2

  • Fires
  • Effect of fire on people and equipment
  • Explosions
  • Calculate explosion distances
    • TNT and TNO Multi-Energy
    • Baker-Strehlow
    • Effect of explosions on people and equipment
    • Toxics
    • Gas dispersion principles
    • Calculating dispersion
      • Source Models
      • Pool Vaporization
      • Dense Gas Dispersion
      • Momentum Jet Dispersion
    • Effect of toxics on people
    • Probability of Injury / Death
      • Effect tables and Probits
      • Models, Assumptions and Limitations
Day 3

  • Frequency Assessment
    • Frequency data sources & data limitations
    • Fault tree and Event Tree Analysis
  • Risk
    • Calculating IR, SR and IRPA
    • Models and Tools
  • Assessing QRAs
  • QRA results reporting
    • Iso-risk contours and F-N curves
  • Uncertainty Analysis
  • QRA for Layout and Spacing